European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s top aide wrote to the chiefs of staff of the 28 European Union leaders this week, touting what looked like a major win in the migration crisis.

In a letter aimed at building support for the Commission’s controversial plan to resettle Syrian refugees from Turkey, head of cabinet Martin Selmayr highlighted a sharp decline in illegal border crossings from Turkey into the EU. The drop was the “first encouraging indications of the efforts being made by Turkey … to stem the flow of irregular migration into the European Union,” Selmayr said.

He attached a chart to his email Tuesday that showed the crossings had dipped from a high of 52,249 in late October to 9,093 last week.

There was just one big problem: The figures weren’t correct.

Internal Commission documents obtained by POLITICO show a significant discrepancy. The actual number of migrants who illegally crossed the border was three times the amount that Selmayr stated — 27,069 for the week of December 7-13, not 9,093.

The difference holds political significance. If the Commission can show that Turkey is making meaningful progress on stemming the migration flow, Juncker can make a stronger case for his plan to resettle refugees across Europe. But some European officials worry that the letter sent a signal that could lessen the pressure on Ankara to take more decisive action. If Turkey doesn’t crack down on the border soon, Europe will face another wave of refugees once the winter is over, the officials fear.

When asked about the discrepancy Thursday, a Commission spokesperson said the trend line is what matters.

“All different statistics pointed to an initial reduction of the refugee flows when comparing December to the previous months,” the spokesperson said.

So how did it happen?

Selmayr forwarded to the chiefs of staff only one of the charts in a six-page report sent to EU ambassadors Thursday. The longer report included text and figures calling that single chart into question, and even warned that it was “too early to draw any statistically relevant conclusions.” Some of those figures were available on Tuesday when Selmayr sent the email, said one official familiar with the matter.

The chart highlighted by Selmayr used figures provided by the EU’s border control agency Frontex. But the figures were weekly numbers that can be notoriously unreliable, Frontex chief Fabrice Leggeri said in an interview Thursday.

“Don’t use the weekly figures,” Leggeri said. “They are not accurate, and that’s for many reasons. It could be that they are not complete and up to date because of the workload and we have to take into account also weather conditions and changes on the Western Balkan route.”

The six-page report stated that efforts to apprehend illegal migrants and arrest smugglers were “an encouraging first indication,” but it was not yet time to celebrate.

“The overall number of irregular entries to the EU from Turkey have remained practically unchanged in the period from 1 to 15 December as compared with the period 13 to 29 November,” the report stated.

Other data show there is slight reduction but far from the steep decline of the weekly chart that Selmayr highlighted. According to a report by the government of Luxembourg, the number of registered arrivals by sea to Greece in December “remains at the average level of approximately 4,000 persons per day.”

This is “a slight reduction if compared to the high numbers of November (5,000-6,000 per day).”

Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this article.  

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