It is hard to overstate Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s record as an election winner.

Since he emerged from prison in 1998 after being jailed for reading an Islamist poem, Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has come first in every single national election. 

They won a constitutional referendum to give Mr Erdogan sweeping new presidential powers and have controlled the city governments of Istanbul and Ankara for a quarter century.   

The easy explanation – and one that Western critics sometimes comfort themselves with – is that anyone can win elections when they jail their opponents and control the media. 

A harder one is that Mr Erdogan’s political brand – a blend of Islamism, Turkish nationalism,…